US in search of new alliance in Middle East with far reaching results!
In a much expected nuclear deal with Iran in the context of complete withdrawal from Iraq, prospective pull out from Afghanistan and its failure to checkmate the Jihadi forces US and its western allies are playing a chessboard game in Middle East with far-reaching (estimated) results. It is a gambit that United States and its trusted western allies think is worth to play. The Geneva agreement between previously defiant Iran and apparently softening US will explore new vistas of US strategy in the region; redrawing contours of its relationship with Saudi monarchy and disarrayed Pakistan. After decades of isolation and torturous sanctions US and its allies wish to lure Iran to the forefront of war against terror by exploring sectarian aspect of ever wandering terror ghost.
For the past several decades America exclusively relied on Pakistan both for moral and logistic support against terror that US thinks is emanating from the region with tentacles spread all over the world and capable enough to sabotage American interests. To ensure unflinching support of Pakistan US at times fiddled with the political and governmental system and arrangement in Pakistan. But, after many efforts American forces and its strategy got lost in treacherous Afghan territory; unable to have any substantial gain on Taliban or any other staunch resistances in the region compelling it to reconsider its tactical alliance with Pakistan. After Osama incident the American strategists seems to have worked overtime to explore and exploit new possibilities of future alliance and strategy. And the best bet in the region was Iran! After the great revolution when autocratic Raza Shah Pahlavi was compelled to leave Tehran, Iran got into radical mode. However over the period of time the Iranian public and its leadership could gauge the pain of isolation, its negative impact on progress of Iran and influence in the region. America and its allies estimated the change in Tehran’s outlook in right earnest and struck the deal with a hope to have a win-win situation, but obviously, with an eye to make it weigh more in its own favor. Now it remains to be seen how long the bonhomie lasts?
The other crucial facet of this nuclear deal is the fate of Saudi Arabia, its royal oligarchy and their interpretation of religious resistance in the region and beyond. The relationship of Saudi autocrats and US for last many decades is well established and well defined. With Iran the arch rival of Saudi Arabia in Middle East getting into lime light the Saudi Arabia and its royalty will get marganilised to the extent of extinction as an influential country in the region and world Islamic order. The deal has ruffled many feathers in the region and the most disturbed of the lot is Saudi Arabia as its royalty feels heat of annihilation that too under the shadow of recent chain of dethroning of tyrants and autocrats in the region. Pakistan in real sense gets benefitted by American friendship while the Saudi Kings always bought American patronage at a huge price. So by all means the investment made by Saudi royals over the years will go down the drain and they find an adversary knocking at the door challenging their legitimacy and religious hegemony.
The other aspect that made US and its western allies to broker a deal with Iran was their growing public pressure within the country against invasive mindset of pursuing their agenda at international level and failure of Iraq and Afghan venture at all levels. The clandestine Libyan operation of dislodging Gaddafi and trying hand in Syria to extend and explore ‘Arab Spring’ was well thought US strategy to follow its agenda without any noticeable involvement. Being biggest hurdle in broad based American plan in Middle East US tried every ploy to tame Iran, even by creating hysteria of strikes and practically imposing sanctions over Iran. The failures, debacles and home pressure obligated America to settle Iranian issue with carrot rather than a stick but surely with a hidden agenda to get rid of bogged Pakistan and outlived Saudi Monarchy.
Most of the analysts who gave too much importance to Israel’s resentment against this deal are ignorant of the fact that as always Israel stands behind every American decision, that too when people inside Israel are seriously looking for peace. The Tel Aviv’s apprehensions, that in the long run this deal will prove detrimental both for America and Israel is nothing but a drama to give its inconspicuous nod that too without compromising the king-size ego.